If you think the geopolitical landscape is a total mess at the moment, you won't get too many objections from me. Last century there was a war over the Falklands between Argentina and Britain, and there remain background tensions that we don't hear much about. It may surprise people to learn that two nations went to war over an island with about 3000 British Citizens living on it, but it will make more sense one you discover how near Argentina they are, and how near to Antarctica too.
The penny will drop when you are reminded that the international treaty preventing a nation using its claims being prospected in antarctica comes to an end in 2048, and the Argentinian (now British) claim sits on enough oil to make a nation the next Saudi Arabia.
Furthermore, over the last 25 years most global volatility has instead been as a result of about ten key factors.
Five of these could have a case made as five variations on one theme:
- Strategic oil and gas reserves/pipelines
- Tension between Russia and the West/NATO.
- The Rise of BRICS and the future of the USD as reserve currency.
- Petrodollar hegemony. With regard to the above, the use of USD international trade is driving up foreign USD demand & particularly the energy sector since oil is by far the largest traded commodity.
- Russia and China have moved to trading in local currencies and look to expand this, particularly in the long term with new BRICS member Saudi Arabia. (The Saudi's are already combining their OPEC weight with Russia for strategic expediency and could conceivably corner the market)
assimilation over. This blog is that diary, so have a read and file it somewhere in your mind, its not likely to be all over the headlines.