Showing posts with label Turkey. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Turkey. Show all posts

Dramatic Shift in Global Power Balance

 


1) Turkey To Join BRICS

To understand the shifting sands of global power with regard to the rise of BRICS you can search this site or look for the tag "BRICS" going back several years.  The last post I made on this topic reflected some dramatic changes and is essential reading since the implications are tremendous and must be appreciated for what they are.

The inclusion of Turkey is just as significant, not for economic reasons but for geographical and military reasons.  Turkey has the second largest standing army in NATO after the US and houses some of the US nuclear weapons.  Turkey has been a NATO anchor and its trusted role regarding strategic weapons positioning has always been a factor since the drama of the Cuban missile crises where Turkey played a major role.   Since the defeat of NATO in the Ukraine proxy war in which the West has been waging against Russia, many have predicted the beginning of the end of the trans-Atlantic alliance, and this move surely signals that this is a reality that the next decade may present.  Furthermore, the potential for Turkey to host future Russian oil pipelines also gets a boost if European demand ever returns to Russia and soon the nation could be holding the EU hostage with its finger on both energy and refugee flow providing tremendous geopolitical leverage.

In terms of geopolitics there has been transformational change coming so quickly that it's difficult to assess the full implications, but once the dust settles, we will be very cognoscente of the fact that the Anglo-American dominated international climate is a totally different place where nothing is the way it used to be. The emerging powers of BRICS, lead by Russia, China, India and a host of new additions are determined to change the flavor of the "Rules Based Order"(a euphemism for US hegemony characterized by bullying, lies and a general lack of respect for the sovereignty of nations and the wellbeing of their citizens).  So far, the evidence shows that nations of the Global South and Middle East consider the diplomacy, basic manners and respects shown by the new power center to be a far more appealing option.

2) The Demise of the Petrodollar

In the next few days, the Petrodollar is up for renewal by the Saudis.  All signs point towards them not renewing it.  Here Here is a quick outline of the Petrodollar nuts and bolts along with a great little synopsis of its history. The reasons in their entirety are complex but simply put Saudi Arabia has moved into the BRICS sphere of influence and faced with the rise of other currencies being used for foreign trade it makes no sense to tie into one currency and only sell in USD.  Also, China has a 1.4 billion population, its growth prospects are tremendous, as are Indias.  Russia and Saudi Arabia can also work together to corner the global oil market, making OPEC somewhat redundant, and Russia has already stepped out of the dollar system, the nation has pioneered an oil for gold and oil for Rubles program using its own hydrocarbon reserves to protect its economy from US sanctions. For more on the Petrodollar you can click the "Petrodollar" tag or enter the word in the search bar. 

The drop in dollar demand is going to impact hugely on the US economy and affect the ability of the Anglo-American establishment to export inflation through the oil price in USD to the Global South.  Strap yourself in, we could be in for a bumpy ride!

Whats The Deal With Russia And Turkey?

Image courtesy Moscow Times

There is a lot of speculation on this topic in the media, on social media and in the MSM, but everyone interprets the current situation differently (it is not as clear as most geopolitical situations based on reading the lay of the land because much is going on behind the scenes). With a little historical perspective many things come into focus. This article from Eurasian Future, by Adam Garrie frames the situation in a way that, for me, is the most plausible.

Image courtesy Middle East Eye


Putin Isn’t Bringing Back the USSR and Erdogan Isn’t Bringing Back the Ottoman Empire – Both Are Embracing Genuine Multipolarity with Historically Apt Characteristics

"When hypernationalists in Russia or Turkey claim that the two countries are destined for conflict, such voices are merely playing into the hands of those in Europe and the United States who seek to divide and rule Eurasia by exploiting conflicts between the Russia, Turkey and also Iran."
Here is the article:
http://www.eurasiafuture.com/2018/04/30/putin-isnt-bringing-back-the-ussr-and-erdogan-isnt-bringing-back-the-ottoman-empire-both-are-embracing-genuine-multipolarity-with-historically-apt-characteristics/

The Links Between Turkey, The US, ISIS & Syria


In Depth Analysis Of Events In Turkey


important to note the military base shut down for day by turkey was USA aligned and where coup came from
By Taylor Goel and Walter SmolarekJul 17, 2016

Turkey: Right-wing forces battle for control
A group composed primarily of mid-level officers of the Turkish Armed Forces attempted to carry out a coup the night of July 15 and early in the morning of July 16. They were able to capture several strategic locations before being driven back by police and other forces loyal to the reactionary regime of President Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP).
Click here to read a statement from Communist Party, Turkey
Fighting primarily took place in Istanbul and Ankara, the most important big cities in the country. Tanks and troops fanned out, momentarily capturing key motorways, government offices and media outlets. The coup forces were able to lay siege to the parliament building and carry out airstrikes against police headquarters.
The rebelling officers failed, however, to capture top government leaders. In a surreal moment, President Erdogan, who was on vacation, appeared on live TV via Facetime and assured that the AKP remained in control. He called on his supporters to take to the streets to protest – but staying true to the cowardly nature of tyrants, some reports indicate that he was simultaneously exploring the possibility of securing safe haven in Greece or Germany.
Large numbers of the AKP followers did in fact take to the streets and confronted tanks and soldiers following this message. The country’s clergy quickly responded and issued a special call to prayer to mobilize supporters of the Erdogan regime. It is important to distinguish the class and political character of the crowds that came into the streets on July 15 and the hundreds of thousands of progressive and working class people who have taken part in various movements to resist the AKP’s reactionary project, including the heroic June 2013 “Gezi Park” movement.
The crowds on the streets of Turkey Friday night were of a purely reactionary, lynch-mob character, some of them armed and acting in close coordination with the police. It is important to remember that the AKP and Erdogan have played a critical in the rise of the so-called Islamic State by supporting, arming and funding IS. The character of the crowds dominating the streets last night is also a grim exposure of how the AKP could equally unleash these reactionary gangs on progressive and left forces if there were a similar Gezi-like uprising.
Erdogan returned to Istanbul late Friday night, and the pro-coup forces began surrendering. It is important to note that the Turkish military is composed primarily of conscripts, who have no choice but to join. Many enlisted soldiers were told by their commanders that they were simply participating in drills, and only later realized that they were being used in a coup attempt. One of the soldiers in Istanbul was beheaded by the AKP supporters, reminiscent of the style of Islamic State terror in Iraq and Syria.
The Obama administration issued a statement after it became clear that the coup would likely fail, urging respect for the “democratically-elected government of Turkey.” It would be a cruel irony to allow the AKP regime – or their opponents who attempted the coup – to claim the mantle of defenders of democracy.
Who are the Gulenists?
It appears that the coup attempt was led by officers aligned with the Fethullah Gulen movement. This is a reactionary Islamist movement whose leader Fethullah Gulen is in exile in the United States. The Gulen movement has an extensive history of working with the CIA.
The Gulen movement had been an important ally of the ruling AKP government between the time it came to power in 2002 until 2013. They have colluded with the AKP, held important positions in the state apparatus and exercised influence through a vast network of media and educational institutions.
The basis of their unity with their former partners in the AKP was a shared desire to destroy the 1923 secular republic and replace it with a religiously-oriented state that rolls back democratic rights.
As the AKP reoriented the nature of the state, it eliminated most of the followers of the progressive secular “Kemalist” tradition – named after the founder of the Republic of Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk – from the judiciary, state security, public education and even sections of military. This vacuum was filled in many cases by Gulenist cadre.
The Gulenists were a key force in the 2010 constitutional referendum that essentially expanded Ergodan’s judicial powers in the name of democracy and cleaning up the remnants of the deep state. It was in fact a pretext for Erdogan to charge a wide range of opposition forces and put them in jail.
As has been the case throughout his career, Erdogan has been unable to share power even with his most like-minded allies. The exact circumstances that sparked the rift are still unclear, but for the last several years the AKP-Gulenist alliance has turned into a bitter rivalry. Where they were once close partners in the past in pushing forward reactionary policies that destroyed the secular nature of the republic coupled with a systematic ideological drive to Islamicize all aspects of social life, the AKP has now focused its attention on expelling the Gulenists.
A wave of repression
Thousands have been arrested so far in a massive sweep carried out by security forces after the coup was put down. The judiciary, military and other key state institutions are being purged of remaining opponents of Erdogan and the AKP. This reportedly includes dozens of generals.
Many of these people likely were involved in the coup to one extent or another, but others are undoubtedly targets of opportunity who have been in the AKP regime’s crosshairs for some time. There is a possibility that the death penalty could now be reinstituted in the country. It may not be far-fetched to say that Erdogan will use the failed coup attempt as the pretext to push forward his own reactionary coup in the name of defending democracy.
Erdogan has long held ambitions of an “executive presidency.” This means fundamentally reforming Turkey’s constitution so that near-dictatorial powers are vested in the presidency. Under the current arrangement, the presidency is technically a ceremonial role with power primarily held by the Prime Minister – a position Erdogan occupied until 2014.
It is unclear how extensive the campaign of repression will be in the wake of the coup. The bourgeois political and business establishment in the country has unanimously condemned the attempted coup.
While the AKP currently lacks the votes in parliament to force through the constitutional changes it desires, that equation could change soon given that the whole bourgeois political establishment including the three main opposition parties, Kemalist CHP (Republican People’s Party), the right-wing MHP (Nationalist Movement Party) and Kurdish opposition party HDP have all expressed support for the AKP’s so-called democracy.
Prior to the coup, the AKP was already whipping up popular sentiment against the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP). Following his defeat in the June 7, 2015 general elections, to regain the AKP’s parliamentary majority Erdogan reignited the government’s brutal war against the oppressed Kurdish people concentrated in the country’s southeast.
The abrupt end of the peace process with the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) was consistent with Erdogan’s record of reckless adventurism. The AKP government is a principal sponsor of the right-wing religious terrorist organizations that are leading the fight to overthrow the Ba’athist government led by President Bashar al-Assad in Syria. For years, it allowed IS and its predecessor organizations to operate supply lines into Syria from Turkey and recruit on Turkish territory in an almost open manner.
Last November, the Turkish military shot down a Russian plane that had at most violated Turkish air space for a few seconds while it was participating in the country’s mission to support the Syrian government. This provoked a profound diplomatic crisis that raised the specter of a catastrophic escalation. Now that Erdogan appears to be softening his position on Syria – making moves to normalize relations with Russia, for instance – the Turkish people are suffering from the inevitable blowback from his incredibly dangerous and foolhardy maneuvers for regional dominance.
It is crucially important to reject all U.S. attempts at intervention in Turkey – the “eastern flank” of NATO – where a succession of murderous CIA-backed coups have repressed the people’s aspirations for democracy and liberation for decades. Difficult days are ahead for all progressive people in Turkey. AKP will surely use the resulting conditions of the failed coup to its benefit to the fullest extent and will tighten its dictatorial grip on the whole country, escalating its already brutal repression of all progressive and leftist movements to a new level.
As tensions are inflamed and the situation becomes even more dangerous, the Party for Socialism and Liberation stands in solidarity with our comrades in Turkey fighting for an end to the domination of their country by right-wing, pro-imperialist forces – whether that is Erdogan and the AKP or another variant.

Something Very Interesting Is Happening In Turkey.



I am no fan of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, never have been, but that does not mean I do not hold his ability as an international diplomat and strategist in high regard.  He is a ruthless and wily opponent if ever there is one, and this means that in the face of a coup like we saw this week any number possibilities should be considered.  But lets look at what we do know, and a picture begins to emerge.



First and foremost, we need to get one thing immediately clear. Turkey has been a major strategic ally of Washington and provided the geographical and logistical cover not only for Washington's rebels in their "Assad must go" regime change push (which they disguise as a civil war) but also for ISIS and have been heavily complicit in the illegal ISIS oild trade among other things.  Secondly, the war in Syria is the preeminent strategic military operation in the globe at the moment and absolutely NOTHING goes down without Washington either orchestrating it or giving it their green light, especially something like a Military coup of a major NATO partner that houses over 70 US nuclear warheads.  Let's not be naive here, to suggest Washington is not at some level aware or complicit, or to rule out that possibility would be poor detective work.  This is an angle I suggest we watch closely in the coming weeks.



Next lets look at the timing. Recently Erdogan sent something that could loosely be considered an apology for the downing of the Russian jet that saw a frosting over of Russian/Turkish relations.  The US does not like this fact. The prime reason for NATO's very survival right now is for Russia to be painted as a villain (which is sick considering Russia's valiant efforts at fighting terrorism of late).  The US military and intelligence community certainly do not approve of the thawing of Erdogans resolve in Syria either, or recent Turkish/Israeli/Russian gas industry related dealings involving Gazprom, or the way the Iran deal has been progressing (at least factions in the US have not been happy about it).  I think the timing here is also very interesting. I am well aware of the circumstantial nature of the last two factors but stick with me here, we are building a picture, framing a case & looking for direction to avoid the MSM smoke-screening that will characterize the coverage of this event going forward.





And what of Fethullah Gulen, who Erdogan has personally accused of being behind things?  He is holed up in self-imposed exile in the US, if the US is complicit he would be the ideal candidate for the sort of puppet regime the US would want in the region, the sort that characterizes the true nature of a US "Strategic Partner" or better put, ...Puppet regime.  Regime change by coup, like in the Ukraine and being attempted in Syria is the standard MO (if not soft power grabs or military invasion) of the US when shopping for partners.

One other interesting possibility that should be taken seriously is the possibility of Erdogan playing a role in the staging of the coup itself, but further evidence would be needed here:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-16/erdogans-arch-enemy-accuses-turkish-president-staging-coup-compares-him-hitler


I think there there are some very interesting factors to consider in our assessment of the situation, and there is a broader game afoot, keep an open mind but also try justifiable suspicious prejudice against US empire building. Somewhere in the middle we will find our solution.



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