America Suddenly Realizes It Has No Democracy

Presented without comment after the DNC
Once a nation realizes it has no democracy, but it has been interfering in governments all over the world to "bring democracy", the question that begs to be answered is: 

"What is it exactly have we actually been bringing to all those countries?"



The South China Sea

Image Courtesy Reuters

By Pepe Escobar in his article for Sputnik found here: 
http://sputniknews.com/columnists/20160726/1043636722/south-china-sea-real-secret.html

The South China Sea is and will continue to be the ultimate geopolitical flashpoint of the young 21st century – way ahead of the Middle East or Russia’s western borderlands. No less than the future of Asia – as well as the East-West balance of power – is at stake.

To understand the Big Picture, we need to go back to 1890 when Alfred Mahan, then president of the US Naval College, wrote the seminal The Influence of Sea Power Upon History, 1660-1783. Mahan’s central thesis is that the US should go global in search of new markets, and protect these new trade routes through a network of naval bases.
That is the embryo of the US Empire of Bases – which de facto started after the Spanish-American war, over a century ago, when the US graduated to Pacific power status by annexing the Philippines, Hawaii and Guam.
Western – American and European — colonialism is strictly responsible for the current, incendiary sovereignty battle in the South China Sea. It’s the West that came up with most land borders – and maritime borders — of these states. 
The roll call is quite impressive. Philippines and Indonesia were divided by Spain and Portugal in 1529. The division between Malaysia and Indonesia is owed to the British and the Dutch in 1842. The border between China and Vietnam was imposed to the Chinese by the French in 1887. The Philippines’s borders were concocted by the US and Spain in 1898. The border between Philippines and Malaysia was drawn by the US and the Brits in 1930.
We are talking about borders between different colonial possessions – and that implies intractable problems from the start, subsequently inherited by post-colonial nations. And to think that it had all started as a loose configuration. The best anthropological studies (Bill Solheim’s, for instance) define the semi-nomadic communities who really traveled and traded across the South China Sea from time immemorial as the Nusantao – an Austronesian compound word for “south island” and “people”.
The Nusantao were not a defined ethnic group; rather a maritime internet. Over the centuries, they had many key hubs, from the coastline between central Vietnam and Hong Kong to the Mekong Delta. They were not attached to any “state”, and the notion of “borders” didn’t even exist.
Only by the late 19th century the Westphalian system managed to freeze the South China Sea inside an immovable framework. Which brings us to why China is so sensitive about its borders; because they are directly linked to the “century of humiliation” – when internal Chinese corruption and weakness allowed Western barbarians to take possession of Chinese land.
Tension in the nine-dash line
The eminent Chinese geographer Bai Meichu was a fierce nationalist who drew his own version of what was called the “Chinese National Humiliation Map”. In 1936 he published a map including a “U-shaped line” gobbling up the South China Sea all the way down to James Shoal, which is 1,500 km south of China but only over 100 km off Borneo. Scores of maps copied Meichu’s. Most included the Spratly Islands, but not James Shoal.
The crucial fact is that Bai was the man who actually invented the “nine-dash line”, promoted by the Chinese government – then not yet Communist – as the letter of the law in terms of “historic” Chinese claims over islands in the South China Sea. 
Everything stopped when Japan invaded China in 1937. Japan had occupied Taiwan way back in 1895. Now imagine Americans surrendering to the Japanese in the Philippines in 1942. That meant virtually the entire coastline of the South China Sea being controlled by a single empire for the fist time in history. The South China Sea had become a Japanese lake.
Not for long; only until 1945. The Japanese did occupy Woody Island in the Paracels and Itu Aba (today Taiping) in the Spratlys. After the end of WWII and the US nuclear-bombing Japan, the Philippines became independent in 1946; the Spratlys immediately were declared Filipino territory.
In 1947 the Chinese went on overdrive to recover all the Paracels from colonial power France. In parallel, all the islands in the South China Sea got Chinese names. James Shoal was downgraded from a sandbank into a reef (it’s actually underwater; still Beijing sees is as the southernmost point of Chinese territory.)
In December 1947 all the islands were placed under the control of Hainan (itself an island in southern China.) New maps — based on Meichu’s — followed, but now with Chinese names for the islands (or reefs, or shoals). The key problem is that no one explained the meaning of the dashes (which were originally eleven.)
So in June 1947 the Republic of China claimed everything within the line – while proclaiming itself open to negotiate definitive maritime borders with other nations later on. But, for the moment, no borders; that was the birth of the much-maligned “strategic ambiguity” of the South China Sea that lasts to this day.  
“Red” China adopted all the maps — and all the decisions. Yet the final maritime border between China and Vietnam, for instance, was decided only in 1999. In 2009 China included a map of the “U-shaped” or “nine-dash line” in a presentation to the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf; that was the first time the line officially showed up on an international level.
No wonder other Southeast Asian players were furious. That was the apex of the millennia-old transition from the “maritime internet” of semi-nomadic peoples to the Westphalian system. The post-modern “war” for the South China Sea was on.
Gunboat freedom
In 2013 the Philippines – prodded by the US and Japan – decided to take its case about Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) in the South China Sea to be judged according to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Both China and Philippines ratified UNCLOS. The US did not. The Philippines aimed for UNCLOS – not “historical rights”, as the Chinese wanted — to decide what is an island, what is a rock, and who is entitled to claim territorial rights (and thus EEZs) in these surrounding waters. 
UNCLOS itself is the result of years of fierce legal battles. Still, key nations – including BRICS members China, India and Brazil, but also, significantly, Vietnam and Malaysia – have been struggling to change an absolutely key provision, making it mandatory for foreign warships to seek permission before sailing through their EEZs.
And here we plunge in truly, deeply troubled waters; the notion of “freedom of navigation”.
For the American empire, “freedom of navigation”, from the West Coast of the US to Asia – through the Pacific, the South China Sea, the Malacca Strait and the Indian Ocean – is strictly subordinated to military strategy. Imagine if one day EEZs would be closed to the US Navy – or if “authorization” would have to be demanded every time; the Empire of Bases would lose “access” to…its own bases.
Add to it trademark Pentagon paranoia; what if a “hostile power” decided to block the global trade on which the US economy depends? (even though the premise — China contemplating such a move — is ludicrous). The Pentagon actually pursues a Freedom of Navigation (FON) program. For all practical purposes, it’s 21st century gunboat diplomacy, as in those aircraft carriers showboating on and off in the South China Sea. 
The Holy Grail, as far as the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is concerned, is to come up with a Code of Conduct to solve all maritime conflicts between Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and China. This has been dragging on for years now because mostly the Philippines wanted to frame the Chinese under a set of binding rules but was only ready to talk until all ten ASEAN members had agreed on them first.
Beijing’s strategy is the opposite; bilateral discussions to emphasize its formidable leverage. Thus China assuring the support of Cambodia – quite visible early this week when Cambodia prevented a condemnation of China regarding the South China Sea at a key summit in Laos; China and ASEAN settled for “self-restraint.” 
Watch Hillary pivoting
In 2011 the US State Department was absolutely terrified with the planned Obama administration withdrawals from both Iraq and Afghanistan; what would happen to superpower projection? That ended in November 2011, when then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton coined the by now famous “pivot to Asia”.
“Six lines of action” were embedded in the “pivot”. Four of these Clinton nicked from a 2009 report by the Washington think tank CSIS; reinvigorating alliances; cultivating relationships with emerging powers; developing relationships with regional multilateral bodies; and working closely with South East Asian countries on economic issues. Clinton added two more: broad-based military presence in Asia, and the promotion of democracy and human rights.
It was clear from the start – and not only across the global South — that cutting across the rhetorical fog the “pivot” was code for a military offensive to contain China. Even more seriously, this was the geopolitical moment when a South East Asian dispute over maritime territory intersected with the across-the-globe confrontation between the hegemon and a “peer competitor”
What Clinton meant by “engaging emerging powers” was, in her own words, “join us in shaping and participating in a rules-based regional and global order”. This is code for rules coined by the hegemon – as in the whole apparatus of the Washington consensus.
No wonder the South China Sea is immensely strategic, as American hegemony intimately depends on ruling the waves (remember Mahan). That’s the core of the US National Military Strategy. The South China Sea is the crucial link connecting the Pacific to the Indian Ocean, the Persian Gulf and ultimately Europe.
And so we finally discover Rosebud — the ultimate South China Sea “secret”. China under Clinton’s “rule-based regional and global order” effectively means that China must obey and keep the South China Sea open to the US Navy.
That spells out inevitable escalation further on down the sea lanes. China, slowly but surely, is developing an array of sophisticated weapons which could ultimately “deny” the South China Sea to the US Navy, as the Beltway is very much aware
What makes it even more serious is that we’re talking about irreconcilable imperatives. Beijing characterizes itself as an anti-imperialist power; and that necessarily includes recovering national territories usurped by colonial powers allied with internal Chinese traitors (those islands that The Hague has ruled are no more than “rocks” or even “low-tide elevations”).
The US, for its part, is all about Exceptionalism and Manifest Destiny.  As it stands, more than Russia’s western borderlands, the Baltics or “Syraq”, this is where the hegemon “rules” are really being contested. And the stakes couldn't be higher. That’ll be the day when the US Navy is “denied” from the South China Sea; and that’ll be the end of its imperial hegemony.

If You Vote Hillary You Are Complicit In War-Crimes.




I have been saying this for years, and I'll say it again, you now have enough evidence, if you vote Hillary you are complicit in war crimes.

Here is a previous post I did on Hillary

And I highly recommend checking out the watertight case I make here (to give you a sense of how to frame this)
http://dwahts.blogspot.co.za/2015/10/assad-did-not-gas-his-own-people-ghouta.html


Clinton not only supported the coup in Libya, but she has supported the war in Syria, because they want their precious oil pipeline, she also supported the coup in Ukraine, and, Honduras.
Obama and Clinton have spread death and chaos in the Middle East, both have been worse than the grand master of chaos, war criminal George Bush in this respect. In their stubborn insistence that Assad be removed from power, which runs counter to international laws, their policies that created death and chaos in Syria, Libya, and the coup they supported in Ukraine that lead to Crimea joining with Russia, (which they blame Russia for) . . . all of this has lead to the loss of hundreds of thousands of non-American lives, and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of non-American refugees . . . . . which leads to the real question, why is it that the lives of non-Americans are so cheap to Obama and Clinton?
Pulitzer Prize Winning Journalist Says Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton Approved Sending Sarin Gas To Syrian Rebels
http://www.inquisitr.com/…/hillary-clinton-pulitzer-prize-…/
This is a link to the UN's report on the use of chemical weapons in Syria. I would challenge anyone to find the place in the report that concludes that it was Assad who used the chemical weapons. The truth is, that while the UN concludes that chemical weapons were used, there is nothing whatsoever that states that it was Assad who used them. http://www.un.org/zh/focus/northafrica/cwinvestigation.pdf
The Clinton - Kissinger connection - the Connoisseur of Chaos - She loves him.
https://theintercept.com/…/henry-kissingers-war-crimes-are…/
Syria
http://ecowatch.com/…/25/robert-kennedy-jr-syria-pipeline-…/
Clinton’s Charity Ties With Oligarchs Behind Ukrainian Coup Revealed
Honduras
http://ncronline.org/…/us-role-honduras-coup-and-subsequent…
Clinton Bull Shit Story . . . So there were 795 emails in 2011 pile, and only 67 emails in the 2012 pile. 67 / 795 = .084 . . . . So 2012, when the year of the attack, only about 8% as many emails appear than the number of emails in 2011 . . . . Not credible at all . . . . . Clearly she had to have deleted a hell of a lot of them? Where the fuck are all her 2012 emails? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJqzD5Cq6V4

The Links Between Turkey, The US, ISIS & Syria


In Depth Analysis Of Events In Turkey


important to note the military base shut down for day by turkey was USA aligned and where coup came from
By Taylor Goel and Walter SmolarekJul 17, 2016

Turkey: Right-wing forces battle for control
A group composed primarily of mid-level officers of the Turkish Armed Forces attempted to carry out a coup the night of July 15 and early in the morning of July 16. They were able to capture several strategic locations before being driven back by police and other forces loyal to the reactionary regime of President Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP).
Click here to read a statement from Communist Party, Turkey
Fighting primarily took place in Istanbul and Ankara, the most important big cities in the country. Tanks and troops fanned out, momentarily capturing key motorways, government offices and media outlets. The coup forces were able to lay siege to the parliament building and carry out airstrikes against police headquarters.
The rebelling officers failed, however, to capture top government leaders. In a surreal moment, President Erdogan, who was on vacation, appeared on live TV via Facetime and assured that the AKP remained in control. He called on his supporters to take to the streets to protest – but staying true to the cowardly nature of tyrants, some reports indicate that he was simultaneously exploring the possibility of securing safe haven in Greece or Germany.
Large numbers of the AKP followers did in fact take to the streets and confronted tanks and soldiers following this message. The country’s clergy quickly responded and issued a special call to prayer to mobilize supporters of the Erdogan regime. It is important to distinguish the class and political character of the crowds that came into the streets on July 15 and the hundreds of thousands of progressive and working class people who have taken part in various movements to resist the AKP’s reactionary project, including the heroic June 2013 “Gezi Park” movement.
The crowds on the streets of Turkey Friday night were of a purely reactionary, lynch-mob character, some of them armed and acting in close coordination with the police. It is important to remember that the AKP and Erdogan have played a critical in the rise of the so-called Islamic State by supporting, arming and funding IS. The character of the crowds dominating the streets last night is also a grim exposure of how the AKP could equally unleash these reactionary gangs on progressive and left forces if there were a similar Gezi-like uprising.
Erdogan returned to Istanbul late Friday night, and the pro-coup forces began surrendering. It is important to note that the Turkish military is composed primarily of conscripts, who have no choice but to join. Many enlisted soldiers were told by their commanders that they were simply participating in drills, and only later realized that they were being used in a coup attempt. One of the soldiers in Istanbul was beheaded by the AKP supporters, reminiscent of the style of Islamic State terror in Iraq and Syria.
The Obama administration issued a statement after it became clear that the coup would likely fail, urging respect for the “democratically-elected government of Turkey.” It would be a cruel irony to allow the AKP regime – or their opponents who attempted the coup – to claim the mantle of defenders of democracy.
Who are the Gulenists?
It appears that the coup attempt was led by officers aligned with the Fethullah Gulen movement. This is a reactionary Islamist movement whose leader Fethullah Gulen is in exile in the United States. The Gulen movement has an extensive history of working with the CIA.
The Gulen movement had been an important ally of the ruling AKP government between the time it came to power in 2002 until 2013. They have colluded with the AKP, held important positions in the state apparatus and exercised influence through a vast network of media and educational institutions.
The basis of their unity with their former partners in the AKP was a shared desire to destroy the 1923 secular republic and replace it with a religiously-oriented state that rolls back democratic rights.
As the AKP reoriented the nature of the state, it eliminated most of the followers of the progressive secular “Kemalist” tradition – named after the founder of the Republic of Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk – from the judiciary, state security, public education and even sections of military. This vacuum was filled in many cases by Gulenist cadre.
The Gulenists were a key force in the 2010 constitutional referendum that essentially expanded Ergodan’s judicial powers in the name of democracy and cleaning up the remnants of the deep state. It was in fact a pretext for Erdogan to charge a wide range of opposition forces and put them in jail.
As has been the case throughout his career, Erdogan has been unable to share power even with his most like-minded allies. The exact circumstances that sparked the rift are still unclear, but for the last several years the AKP-Gulenist alliance has turned into a bitter rivalry. Where they were once close partners in the past in pushing forward reactionary policies that destroyed the secular nature of the republic coupled with a systematic ideological drive to Islamicize all aspects of social life, the AKP has now focused its attention on expelling the Gulenists.
A wave of repression
Thousands have been arrested so far in a massive sweep carried out by security forces after the coup was put down. The judiciary, military and other key state institutions are being purged of remaining opponents of Erdogan and the AKP. This reportedly includes dozens of generals.
Many of these people likely were involved in the coup to one extent or another, but others are undoubtedly targets of opportunity who have been in the AKP regime’s crosshairs for some time. There is a possibility that the death penalty could now be reinstituted in the country. It may not be far-fetched to say that Erdogan will use the failed coup attempt as the pretext to push forward his own reactionary coup in the name of defending democracy.
Erdogan has long held ambitions of an “executive presidency.” This means fundamentally reforming Turkey’s constitution so that near-dictatorial powers are vested in the presidency. Under the current arrangement, the presidency is technically a ceremonial role with power primarily held by the Prime Minister – a position Erdogan occupied until 2014.
It is unclear how extensive the campaign of repression will be in the wake of the coup. The bourgeois political and business establishment in the country has unanimously condemned the attempted coup.
While the AKP currently lacks the votes in parliament to force through the constitutional changes it desires, that equation could change soon given that the whole bourgeois political establishment including the three main opposition parties, Kemalist CHP (Republican People’s Party), the right-wing MHP (Nationalist Movement Party) and Kurdish opposition party HDP have all expressed support for the AKP’s so-called democracy.
Prior to the coup, the AKP was already whipping up popular sentiment against the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP). Following his defeat in the June 7, 2015 general elections, to regain the AKP’s parliamentary majority Erdogan reignited the government’s brutal war against the oppressed Kurdish people concentrated in the country’s southeast.
The abrupt end of the peace process with the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) was consistent with Erdogan’s record of reckless adventurism. The AKP government is a principal sponsor of the right-wing religious terrorist organizations that are leading the fight to overthrow the Ba’athist government led by President Bashar al-Assad in Syria. For years, it allowed IS and its predecessor organizations to operate supply lines into Syria from Turkey and recruit on Turkish territory in an almost open manner.
Last November, the Turkish military shot down a Russian plane that had at most violated Turkish air space for a few seconds while it was participating in the country’s mission to support the Syrian government. This provoked a profound diplomatic crisis that raised the specter of a catastrophic escalation. Now that Erdogan appears to be softening his position on Syria – making moves to normalize relations with Russia, for instance – the Turkish people are suffering from the inevitable blowback from his incredibly dangerous and foolhardy maneuvers for regional dominance.
It is crucially important to reject all U.S. attempts at intervention in Turkey – the “eastern flank” of NATO – where a succession of murderous CIA-backed coups have repressed the people’s aspirations for democracy and liberation for decades. Difficult days are ahead for all progressive people in Turkey. AKP will surely use the resulting conditions of the failed coup to its benefit to the fullest extent and will tighten its dictatorial grip on the whole country, escalating its already brutal repression of all progressive and leftist movements to a new level.
As tensions are inflamed and the situation becomes even more dangerous, the Party for Socialism and Liberation stands in solidarity with our comrades in Turkey fighting for an end to the domination of their country by right-wing, pro-imperialist forces – whether that is Erdogan and the AKP or another variant.

Something Very Interesting Is Happening In Turkey.



I am no fan of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, never have been, but that does not mean I do not hold his ability as an international diplomat and strategist in high regard.  He is a ruthless and wily opponent if ever there is one, and this means that in the face of a coup like we saw this week any number possibilities should be considered.  But lets look at what we do know, and a picture begins to emerge.



First and foremost, we need to get one thing immediately clear. Turkey has been a major strategic ally of Washington and provided the geographical and logistical cover not only for Washington's rebels in their "Assad must go" regime change push (which they disguise as a civil war) but also for ISIS and have been heavily complicit in the illegal ISIS oild trade among other things.  Secondly, the war in Syria is the preeminent strategic military operation in the globe at the moment and absolutely NOTHING goes down without Washington either orchestrating it or giving it their green light, especially something like a Military coup of a major NATO partner that houses over 70 US nuclear warheads.  Let's not be naive here, to suggest Washington is not at some level aware or complicit, or to rule out that possibility would be poor detective work.  This is an angle I suggest we watch closely in the coming weeks.



Next lets look at the timing. Recently Erdogan sent something that could loosely be considered an apology for the downing of the Russian jet that saw a frosting over of Russian/Turkish relations.  The US does not like this fact. The prime reason for NATO's very survival right now is for Russia to be painted as a villain (which is sick considering Russia's valiant efforts at fighting terrorism of late).  The US military and intelligence community certainly do not approve of the thawing of Erdogans resolve in Syria either, or recent Turkish/Israeli/Russian gas industry related dealings involving Gazprom, or the way the Iran deal has been progressing (at least factions in the US have not been happy about it).  I think the timing here is also very interesting. I am well aware of the circumstantial nature of the last two factors but stick with me here, we are building a picture, framing a case & looking for direction to avoid the MSM smoke-screening that will characterize the coverage of this event going forward.





And what of Fethullah Gulen, who Erdogan has personally accused of being behind things?  He is holed up in self-imposed exile in the US, if the US is complicit he would be the ideal candidate for the sort of puppet regime the US would want in the region, the sort that characterizes the true nature of a US "Strategic Partner" or better put, ...Puppet regime.  Regime change by coup, like in the Ukraine and being attempted in Syria is the standard MO (if not soft power grabs or military invasion) of the US when shopping for partners.

One other interesting possibility that should be taken seriously is the possibility of Erdogan playing a role in the staging of the coup itself, but further evidence would be needed here:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-16/erdogans-arch-enemy-accuses-turkish-president-staging-coup-compares-him-hitler


I think there there are some very interesting factors to consider in our assessment of the situation, and there is a broader game afoot, keep an open mind but also try justifiable suspicious prejudice against US empire building. Somewhere in the middle we will find our solution.



We Are On The Verge Of Confirming The Whole Thing Is A Scam


A brilliant article which can be found here;
https://markstcyr.com/2016/07/03/brexit-proved-its-all-a-central-bank-funded-mirage/

Brexit Proved It’s All A Central Bank Funded Mirage

Cause for concern is being dismissed by the hordes of next in rotation fund managers, economists, Ivory Tower academics, or Nobel Laureates as they themselves stampede to any available cameras, microphones, or keyboards that will quote them as saying “See…all that worrying is for naught. And expressing anything other is strictly for the gloom and doom crowd.” Which they then will triumphantly state: “Which has been wrong over, and over, and over again.”
My response is this: Then why is nobody buying it? (e.g., the market) Figuratively, as well as literally.
If one looks at any credible volume report, the participation rate as to those “buying” into these rallies, which by the way, are the result of a previous fall instilling (once again) a near death experience. It rivals that of a BLS report. i.e., great headlines – just don’t look at how many people are actually “participating.”
I have another question: Why can’t the markets proceed any higher than when QE ended in Oct/Nov of 2014? You know, if this is truly: a fundamentally based bull market that is.
Or, is it that – its fundamentally full of bull? I believe it’s a big-ole-pile of the latter, and little to none of the former.
Put a different way: Explain why does it take more central banker intervention, or the promise thereof, to stop these falls? If it were all “fundamentally” based on market principles, again, why is there a need or call for even more monetary interventionism? (i.e., negative interest rates, “helicopter” styled moves, etc., etc.)
Regardless of what is touted (or worse actually taught) as reasoning by this crowd. One fact remains: without the central banks it all falls apart, precisely for the reason that there is no fundamental reason for the markets to be at these heights to begin with. Period.
It’s all an illusion, and it gets proven more as fact every time there’s a hiccup. So much so that now if hiccups aren’t dealt with in immediate triage in the form of some ready to be administered monetary antibiotic. A little discomfort is primed to turn into a terminal failure.
Let’s all remember a few details that are quite conveniently forgotten by far too many…
In 2010 then Fed. chairman Ben Bernanke unleashed a policy of monetary intervention which only a few years previous would have been hailed as ludicrous by this same crowd now calling for more of the same. That intervention is now in the history books called quantitative easing (QE) and its raison d’être was for moving the capital markets.
Just imagine bringing up this issue, let alone proposing it circa 2006. i.e., The Federal Reserve along with other central banks around the globe should (and would) purchase government debt and other such vehicles in an ever evolving aggregate of instruments they deemed proper, at any time. I’m of the opinion (and with good reasoning) you would’ve had this same cohort of economists, academics, et all who are still vociferously calling for more, more, and more – laughing and deeming even the notion as preposterous. However, that is not where we find ourselves today. All that previous hilarity has now become accepted monetary policy
If one is to be truthful, looking at these same charts which are flagrantly used and pointed to in “mission accomplished” type fashion as to show the efficacy of monetary intervention, then I’ll agree; there is only one conclusion, and it’s called: perversion.
In 2010 thru 2014 with the introduction, as well as the reinstatement of further intervention (e.g., QE 2, 3, Twist, et al) the markets went on a rocket-ship ride straight up with nearly a correction. Ever! Then once QE was officially halted (but the tailwinds of “reinvestments” remained) the “market” has done nothing but stutter at best – and more than once – given way to panic-stricken sell-offs. It seems the “market” can rise no higher without further accommodation, nor remain there either.
There’s no fundamental market at work currently. Nor has there been since circa 2010. Only central bank adulteration. Period. Anyone arguing the opposite in my opinion: is naive at best, or, a charlatan at worst. The latest case in point: Brexit.
Once the Brexit vote crossed the wires the “markets” expressed its uneasiness with the results. Whether or not one agrees with the outcome is irrelevant to this discussion. What is relevant is the exacting reversal, along with its speed which is simply jaw dropping.
Remember when the ECB rolled out its latest propaganda how it was waiting in the wings to show just how “in control” it really was with its trading operations nerve center expose? Could one envision such a piece in, let’s say, 2006? Never-mind stating not only would it be a reality, it would be touted as both necessary, as well as a prudent piece of current monetary policy. Last week showed you just how lifeless these “markets” truly are. There’s just no there – there. Only the central banks.
Once again in dramatic fashion the “markets” seemingly caught wrong-footed spiraled downward. And (once again) the futures markets here in the U.S. had a limit down event needing the circuit breakers to (once again) halt the momentum.
Say what you want about the severity or forcefulness of the initial reaction. One can argue till they’re blue-in-the-face on whether it was warranted. However, what can’t escape the light of scrutiny is just how perfectly, as well as the expediency to such a move was entirely erased. Not in months, nor weeks, but within days. Yes, one of the largest political upheavals in modern history that not only has the potential of changing everything, but rather, does change everything for the entire monetary makeup that is currently held – is completely erased near to the penny as if it never even took place? In my best English accent all I can say is – bollocks!
Markets just don’t work that way. Investing just doesn’t work that way. And sooner, rather than later, true price discovery will make its way back into these markets. And when it does, based on current fundamentals – it’s not going to be pretty at all.
Currently (once again) it would seem that central bank intervention has saved the day. Yet, to what extent and at what expense? It’s now grown beyond ridiculous to anyone with a modicum of business acumen. There’s just no way you’re going to get a sane business person to take chances needed as to help spur an economy in these conditions. The more these shenanigans play out – the more they’ll hunker down. The exact opposite of what the economy needs.
It doesn’t take too much brain power to conclude there has to be an end point to all this bizarro world of monetary intervention. At some point in the not so distant future these hiccups will in-fact turn from a momentary discomfort to an outright panic with terminal implications. Like credit card luxury living – everything appears just “fly” till one day just one late payment sends the whole ruse tumbling into oblivion. Today’s central bank policies aren’t all that much different.
All it will take is just one time, or one player to upset this apple cart of illusion which is desperately being maintained, and it all unravels. And as I’ve iterated many times previous I believe that player is China.
As central banks keep intervening mightily within the capital markets as I have stated before: to think China will idly stand by and just “suck up” the consequences of those actions is a fools game. And as proof I would like to point out that as the central banks were busily propping up the markets before, during, and after the Brexit vote. China (once again) devalued the Yuan in a move not seen, and reminiscent in size and scope of August last year. You know, when everything was seeming to come off the rails – once again.
It would seem central banks from the ECB to the Fed. want to perpetuate the illusion that their approach is what’s going to be the only acceptable means of the day, tying every other nation up into monetary knots resulting in them needing to acquiesce.
There’s a very big problem with this type of thinking, and intellectuals, as well as today’s academics fall prey and never see the alternatives until it’s too late.
Remember the tale of “The Gordian Knot?” If not (no pun intended) all you have to understand about the story is this: When push came to shove, someone decided rather than play by the imposed rules, they made their own. Current monetary policy being implemented in the fashion that it currently is I believe will end up in results much of the same.
This is where the powers-that-be feel, appear, and act as if anointed while dictating terms as to why things are, and will remain, as they state they should – till someone walks in and cleaves the notion of it all with their own solution. Literally.
It’s only been a week with full-on central bank behind the scenes action to quell (and erase) the Brexit initial impact.
The effect of the Yuan is still yet to be felt, let alone, evaluated. While another more poignant question remains: Have we seen the last? Or: is this just the beginning of their devaluing?
Make no mistake, China’s next move will be far from any Illusion. And the severity of that reality just might be far more reality than the current illusion of “fundamentals” can handle. And you don’t need to look at any chart to understand that fundamental reality.

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