Robust consensus for Global Cooling (Part 3)


 Part 3 out of 4 in what should end up being close to 300 papers from the 1960's and 70's (and a few interesting publications from before,... and hec, even perhaps 1 or 2 from the 80's themselves). This assortment was intended to demonstrate that the myth of just 7 papers existing pre 1980 reflecting the claimed robust support cooling had. The forums and dungeons of Social Media are rife with denisons of prevailing dogma in the sciences.  Some very basic established conventional wisdom has been forgotten. In its place the tailored schemings of tax exempt foundations and think tanks have found their way (basically unchallenged) into the arsenal of the powerful internationalist cabal of dynastic blue bloods and the puppet neoliberal political class their blue and white flag UN globalist structures have vetted. Many scientists see it as self evident that AGW cannot be a valid hypothesis, as did the science community once as these pages illustrate. In fact it was a very prevalent view at the time we would need to contend with a comming ice age. As is always demonstrated, science is bought and paid for by the real stewards of public policy, it does not lead to public policy. To not understand this about the global power structure demonstrates an almost unforgivable naivety.



Continued from Part 1 

...and from Part  2 


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Due to page hangtime/loading time resulting from th sheer number of papers I have linked with preludes, this project has been published in several parts as a series.

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180. Oliver, 1976

A period of several decades existed (~1915-1945) in which volcanic activity was unusually light and, as mentioned earlier, the temperatures were higher than the preceding [1880s to 1910s] or, in fact, the subsequent (current) [1960s-1970s] period. … Numerous possible causes of climate change have been discussed in the literature, including both anthropogenic and natural factors. Two principal anthropogenic sources are often considered: changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and changes in tropospheric dust. … The possible effects due to changes in CO2 are perhaps most readily subject to analysis, for good data do exist on atmospheric CO2 and its increase over recent decades. Thus, according to Reitan (1971), based on calculations by Manabe and Wetherald (1967), the increase in CO2 between the 1880’s and the 1960’s could have caused a mean temperature increase of 0.3°C. Unfortunately, however, such computations are based on assumptions...

Tbc

182. Lorenz, 1970

Climatic Change as a Mathematical Problem

If, instead, we look into the 21st century, and make an optimistic forecast concerning the type of computer which will be available, we find that yet another approach to climatic change may become feasible. We may construct a super-model, including as variables every feature of the atmosphere and its environment which can conceivably have varied over the ice ages.  Included will be such features as the detailed composition of the atmosphere and the oceans, the extent of continental glaciation, and the distribution of vegetation. We can probably omit human activity on the grounds that human tampering was not responsible for past climate changes.  When we integrate the equations, if they are correct, we shall necessarily obtain changes in climate, including the great ice ages.

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183. Lindzen, 1989

Judging from much of what one sees in the media, there is little doubt about the coming global warming. The question is simply whether it will be unprecendentedly bad (1.5° warming) or worse (5°C warming). To quote from Stephen Schneider at a recent conference hosted by Robert Redford at Sundance, Utah, ‘there will be no winners.’ The Democratic National Committee has made dealing with the warming an issue on a par with dealing with the drug problem. Still, if one visits the Center for Meteorology and Physical Meteorology at M.I.T. (where I happen to teach) one encounters a general attitude of skepticism. There is a common feeling at M.I.T. and elsewhere, that this question has become enmeshed in hysteria. Such environmental scares are not unheard of. In recent years we have confronted the destruction of the ozone layer by supersonic transports, the coming ice age (popular in the early 70s, and the subject of Stephen Schneider’s book, The Genesis Strategy), and nuclear winter. All these scares have withered for good reason. It is only fair to add that none of these earlier scares has been put forth with the vehemence associated with ‘global warming.’ In this paper, I propose to go over the scientific bases for our present concerns. I hope to show that both the data and our scientific understanding do not support the present level of concern.

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184. Gates et al., 1981

Preliminary analysis of experiments on the climatic effects of increased CO2 with an atmospheric general circulation model and a climatological ocean

Preliminary results from numerical experiments designed to show the seasonal and geographical distribution of the climatic changes resulting from increased atmospheric CO2 concentration are presented. These simulations were made for both doubled and quadrupled CO2 levels with an improved version of the two-level OSU atmospheric GCM. In these experiments and in a control run with normal CO2, the solar radiation incident at the top of the model atmosphere and the sea-surface temperature and sea ice were given prescribed seasonal climatological variations. In January the globally averaged tropospheric temperature is increased with respect to the control mean by 0.30°C (0.48°C) for doubled (quadrupled) CO2, which may be compared with an interannual January temperature variability of 0.15°C in the control (as measured by the root-mean-square of January monthly averages in a 3-year control integration). In July, the globally averaged tropospheric temperature rises by 0.33°C (0.60°C) for doubled (quadrupled) CO2, with an average warming over land surfaces of 0.71°C (1.04°C); these values may be compared with a root-mean-square interannual July temperature variability of only 0.03°C in the control. These results are clearly due to the model’s differing thermal response over ocean and continent in the summer and winter seasons.

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185. Libby, 1970

FIFTY ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS OF TIMELY IMPORTANCE

WEATHER MODIFICATION BY CHANGING CO2 CONTENT OF ATMOSPHERE [p. 48]

Item: American Scientist, January-February 1970, p. 18, “Though dire effects on climate of an increase in CO2 have been predicted, they are far from being established. The cycle is not really understood; carbon dioxide may well prove to be the least objectionable or the only beneficial addition to the atmosphere from industrial sources … Atmospheric CO2 is the source of almost all the carbon of organic compounds in our bodiesIt is likely that CO2 from industrial sources has actually increased the productivity of terrestrial vegetation since 1900, and that as fossil fuels are exhausted and industry goes to atomic power there will be a decrease, possibly ten percent, in agricultural yields….”

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186. Schuurmans, 1983

For detection purposes we need to know the so-called transient response of climate to a given increase of the atmospheric CO2 concentration (observed or predicted). Transient response patterns, however, are generally much less well known than equilibrium responses.  The problems encountered in specifying the transient CO2-induced climate signal are discussed in detail by Michael et al. in his book.  From his review we may conclude that there is some general agreement amongst different modellers that the transient response of global mean temperature to increased CO2 concentration of the atmosphere at present amounts to less than 0.5 K (estimates of [temperature response] now varying between 0.2 and 0.4 K).

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187. Rasool and Schneider, 1971

It is found that, although the addition of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere does increase the surface temperature, the rate of temperature increase diminishes with increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

It is found that even an increase by a factor of 8 in the amount of CO2, which is highly unlikely in the next several thousand years, will produce an increase in the surface temperature of less than 2°K. However, the effect on surface temperature of an increase in the aerosol content of the atmosphere is found to be quite significant. An increase by a factor of 4 in the equilibrium dust concentration in the global atmosphere, which cannot be ruled out as a possibility within the next century, could decrease the mean surface temperature by as much as 3.5°K. If sustained over a period of several years, such a temperature decrease could be sufficient to trigger an ice age!

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188. Landsberg, 1970

Therefore it appears that on the local scale man-made influences on climate are substantial but that on the global scale natural forces still prevail. Obviously this should not lead to complacency. The potential for anthropogenic changes of climate on a larger and even a global scale is real. At this stage activation of an adequate worldwide monitoring system to permit early assessment of these changes is urgent. This statement applies particularly to the surveillance of atmospheric composition and radiation balance at sites remote from concentrations of population, which is now entirely inadequate. In my opinion, man-made aerosols, because of their optical properties and possible influences on cloud and precipitation processes, constitute a more acute problem than CO2. Many of their effects are promptly reversible; hence, one should strive for elimination at the source. Over longer intervals, energy added to the atmosphere by heat rejection and CO2 absorption remain matters of concern.

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189. Weare and Snell, 1974

Introduction: There has been in recent years a growing concern over possible inadvertent climate alteration by man’s activity (SMI, 1971; Matthews et al., 1971). As a result, there has been considerable effort devoted to developing predictive global climatic models (Budyko, 1969, 1972; Sellers, 1969, 1973), or to otherwise assessing the climatic effect of atmospheric pollutants (see, e.g., Manabe, 1971; Lamb, 1970; Rasool and Schneider, 1971; Bryson, 1972; Mitchell, 1970). This effort has been useful in providing tentative predictions and has certainly stimulated more interest and even controversy. However, the climatic models have relied heavily on simplified empirical parameterizations and, in general, none of the assessments have been very inclusive of many of the earth-atmosphere dynamic feedback mechanisms. For instance, one of the most important factors potentially affecting the radiation balance of the earth-atmosphere system is clouds because of their high reflectivity in the visible spectrum and absorption-emission in the infrared.

In Fig. 6 we present the results of altering atmospheric aerosol from the assumed present day-day value of about 0.1 optical depth units. … A doubling produces a 1K decrease in mean annual global surface temperature, whereas a fourfold increase produces somewhat more than a 3K decrease. … As may be seen in Fig. 7, a doubling of CO2 increase the mean annual global surface temperature according to our dynamical model by about 0.7K, but a sixfold increase only increases the temerature 1.7K. The nonlinearity is due to saturation of the 15 µm band.

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190. Washington, 1972

Conclusions: Our basic conclusion is that with the expected levels of man’s thermal energy production, there is a relatively small modification of the model earth-atmosphere heat balance. The differences in numerical experiments with and without thermal energy input produce changes of the same order as the natural fluctuations of the model.  These experiments have the serious shortcoming of assuming fixed ocean surface temperatures and thus should be repeated with a coupled atmosphere-ocean model.

We have not precluded by this study other possible mechanisms by which man may be changing the climate. For example, Rasool and Schneider (1971) have recently suggested that an increase in atmospheric aerosol content by a factor of 4 may lead to a 3.5C decrease in the surface temperature. They attribute this effect to increased backscattering of solar radiation caused by aerosols.  Because the solar flux is such a large part of the surface energy budget, this sort of effect could easily mask the small effect of thermal energy. Furthermore, we know from geological records that natural fluctuations in climate occur, causing temperatures over large areas of the globe to vary by several degrees.   Before we can predict the small effect of man’s activities on climate, we must be able to understand these natural fluctuations.

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191. Ludwig et al., 1973

There have been a number of theoretical models developed in which the effect of the CO2 increase is linked with a mean global temperature increase. In general, these models have not been too successful because the end results were unreasonably sensitive to minor changes in some critical assumptions. For example, Manabe and Wetherald (ref. 7) calculate that the estimated increase in CO2 concentration by the year 2000 would raise the average atmospheric temperature by 0.5° C. Whether this temperature increase would really occur is open to question, since it could be counterbalanced by a 1% change in total average cloudiness (ref. 8). In addition, the apparent increase of global aerosol concentration (ref. 9) could have a similar counterbalancing effect.

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192. Singer, 1976

The distribution of the radiating gases is largely responsible for the layering of the Earth’s atmosphere. The troposphere extends from sea level up to approximately 12 km at which point the temperature has dropped to approximately -60°C. Water vapor is about 10 times more important than carbon dioxide, both for radiative heating by absorbing solar radiation and for radiative cooling. In the stratosphere, however, radiative heating by the absorption of solar radiation by ozone is dominant.

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193. Lister and Lemon, 1974

INTERACTIONS OF ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE, DIFFUSE LIGHT, PLANT PRODUCTIVITY AND CLIMATE PROCESSES MODEL PREDICTIONS

Increased CO2 levels cause an increase in tropospheric and surface temperature due to absorption of long-wave radiation in bands centered around 4 µm and 15 µm . Assuming fixed relative humidity, the temperature effect of a 10% increase in CO2 concentration would cause a warming of about 0.3°C. However, normal variations in the present cloud and synoptic weather patterns could easily override the quantitative effects of CO2 on the radiation budget. … [N]one of the present models simulates the interaction of clouds and aerosol layers and almost none considers thermal radiation; thus at best they can only be considered quite speculative. The climatic effect of increased aerosol concentration is obviously still controversial, and the data on aerosols very limited.

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194. Gebhart, 1967

Hitherto absorption of solar radiation has completely been disregarded when investigating how a CO2 increase of the atmosphere modifies the earth’s climate. It can be shown that shortwave and longwave influence of a higher CO2 concentration counteract each other. The temperature change at the earth’s surface is ΔT=+1.2°C when the present concentration is doubled.

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195. Newell and Dopplick, 1970

The Effect of Changing CO2 Concentration on Radiative Heating Rates

The greenhouse theory as usually discussed puts such a “heating” interpretation on the CO2 changes even though the actual effect of a CO2 increase is to diminish the cooling rate. It is well to stress that the conditions here are such that all other items are unchanged. The term greenhouse is of dubious applicability because the greenhouse glass leads to higher temperatures by reducing turbulent eddy heat losses, rather than by a radiative influence (Kondratyev, 1965). To place the CO2 contribution to temperature change in perspective it is compared with other radiative components at two levels in Table 2. Clear skies are assumed. Carbon dioxide is secondary to water vapor in the troposphere as noted by others (e.g., Rodgers and Walshaw, 1966) and dominant in the lower stratosphere under the conditions assumed here. When looking for a potential influence of global pollution on the tropospheric temperature it would be therefore wise to pay careful attention to the water cycle and its possible modification, particularly as it enters also through the effect of latent heat.

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196. Schell, 1971

Classic meteorology can also serve well for testing other theories of climate change, such as that involving CO2, which calls for an essentially equal rise or fall in temperature everywhere, as opposed to the actual small rise or fall observed in low latitudes, and the much larger rise or fall in higher latitudes. … We may also call attention to the limitations imposed by mathematical models as expressed by Lorenz: “Such a solution may give us little insight as to why the changes took place”; and: “As to what features did produce climate changes we still have this privilege of arguing.”

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197. Manabe and Möller, 1961

The heating due to the absorption of solar radiation by carbon dioxide is still small compared with the effects of other processes. However around the tropopause, where the contributions of various radiative processes are at a minimum, it is not always negligible.

Conclusions: (6) According to our computation of radiative heat budget, in the stratosphere, net heating effects include the absorption of solar radiation by water vapor, carbon dioxide (not negligible around the tropopause), and ozone and the atmospheric radiation due to the 9.6 μ band of ozone; net cooling effects include the long wave radiation by water vapor and carbon dioxide. Summing all these contributions we obtain a very weak heating in low latitudes and a rather strong cooling in the lower stratosphere at high latitudes. This cooling is too large to be considered as the product of uncertainties involved in the computation and must be compensated for by heat processes other than radiation. (7) [T]he study of various processes contributing to the heat of the layer around the 18-krn. level, where the observed temperature sharply increases with latitude, was performed. The long wave radiation by water vapor has a tendency to maintain the existing latitudinal gradient. The effects of ozone have the same tendency in low latitudes but not in high latitudes. The long wave radiation by carbon dioxide has a strong tendency to destroy the existing latitudinal increase of the temperature. The net effect of these radiative processes could barely maintain the stratospheric temperature approximately constant with latitude and hardly explains the sharp latitudinal temperature increase observed in the stratosphere.

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198. Webster, 1984

The pervasive opinion on the relationship between the state of the climate and the increasing concentration of CO2 is that a general global warming will occur with social, economical and environmental corollaries that may be adverse. However, there exist a number of dissenting arguments that call for a much smaller increase in global temperature or even an induced global cooling. Furthermore, the positive biological effects of a greater atmospheric CO2 loading are emphasized.

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199. Jones et al., 1981

There is evidence that the long-term cooling that characterized the 1940’s, 1950’s and 1960’s has ended. Warming began in the mid to late 1960’s in winter and spring, in the mid 1970’s in autumn and later in summer. Year-to-year variability has been particularly pronounced during the 1970’s. For example, 1972 was the coldest winter since 1918, yet 1980 and 1981 were among the five warmest winters during the last 100 years. There is, as yet, no statistical reason to associate the recent warming with atmospheric CO2 increases.

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200. Paltridge, 1978

A recent report of the US National Academy of Sciences (1979) tends to discount the possibility that cloud-radiation feedback might reduce to negligible proportions the rise in global surface temperature with increasing atmospheric CO2. The opinion is legitimate enough in light of the caveats spelled out in the Academy report. It may even turn out to be correct in the end. However, opinions of this sort have a habit of becoming accepted wisdom, and it is worth while emphasizing again that the supporting evidence is (as yet) very thin. It derives from one or two experiments with numerical models in which ‘clouds’ are generated by the model itself (Schneider et al., 1978, Manabe and Wetherland 1980). These experiments do not show much change in the amount of cloud with increasing CO2.

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201. Robock, 1979

Carbon dioxide produced by fossil fuel burning does not seem to have had a significant effect on climatic change as yet. With it the results are slightly better for the entire record and slightly worse for the most recent portion. This conclusion should be qualified because there may be compensating anthropogenic influences such as aerosols, and the model tends to underemphasize the CO2 effect as compared to more sophisticated radiation models which treat the stratosphere explicitly

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202. Lamb, 1961

The carbon dioxide changes obviously cannot account for various decades and longer periods of climatic cooling in historical and recent times

203. Schneider, 1974


A doubling of world population by 2015 could have consequences for the global climate. Expected increases in atmospheric pollutants, thermal pollution and modifications to the earth’s surface are human activities that have potential to influence climate inadvertently. In addition, purposeful climate modification schemes (such as creating artificial lakes or melting the Arctic Sea ice) may be proposed with increasing seriousness as world food shortages (induced by projected population growth and/or climatic fluctuation) become commonplace. Already there is drought induced hunger and starvation in parts of central Africa, and the prospect for a more widespread food crisis in the 1970s is ominous. Unfortunately, knowledge of climate theory is still too primitive to trace reliably climatic cause and effect links, and therefore it is argued that large-scale climate modification schemes appear irresponsible. In any case, international authorities must eventually be established to deal with potential world conflicts arising from future problems of food production and climate change-whether purposeful or inadverten


[A purposeful “climate modification scheme” to melt Arctic sea ice implies contemporary concern that global cooling was contributing to climate-induced world food shortages




204. Flohn, 19


The large retreat of the Arctic sea-ice during the first 40-50 years of this century—which recently has been stopped—suggests the possibility of an atmospheric circulation with one ice-free pole. In this case —which has been realized in iriterglacial epochs, perhaps also in the post-glacial warm period—the present asymmetry between northern and southern hemisphere ought to be even stronge


According to recent systematic investigations, the CO2 content of the atmosphere has increased from about 290 ppm (= 106 volume units) at the end of last century to about 330 ppm in the last decade. From G-14 investigations from living wood H. E. Suess has concluded that the dilution of atmospheric carbon dioxide by C-14-free CO2 produced by the burning of fossil fuels amounts only to 2-4 per cent, much smaller than the above-mentioned 12 per cent (Revelle and Suess, 1957). It can only partially explain the recent increase. … [T]here are serious objections against any over-emphasis of the CO2 theory. First: it deals only with one single term of the global beat balance. The observed constancy of temperature south of 50° S. cannot be explained on this basis, since the CO2 content of Antarctic air is not significantly lower than in other zones, as has been suggested. The occurrence of apparently world-wide temperature variations before the start of the industrial area and the rapid increase of population—e.g., cooling from the sixteenth Century to the Little Ice Age (1680-1740) and warming during the period 1770-1810 (Flohn, 1957)—is followed recently by a small but general tendency to cooling in the last decade, accompanied by the most rapid increase in industrial combustion. Such examples seem to demonstrate that the CO2 effect—-even as supported by a similar effect of artificial air pollution-—cannot be considered as the single (nor even as the main) cause of climatic variations, but certainly as an essential contributing facto




205. Sawyer, 19


The output of human industry is still very much less than the total mass of the atmosphere and man-made energy is still small compared with the energy of meteorological systems. The total industrial output of heat each day is, for example, considerably less than 0.1% of the total kinetic energy of the atmosphere, which itself is destroyed by friction and replaced naturally within a few days. Another useful comparison is that of the total man-made heat output in Britain with natural processes over the same area.  Even over this area of relatively intense human activity man’s efforts are relatively quite small – man-made heat is less than 1% of the energy received from the Sun. It also must be remembered that the mass of the atmosphere is enormous compared with the products of human activity. The total mass of the atmosphere is more than 500 times the mass of the known coal reserves, for example, and human activities will not change its chief constituent


An atmosphere at a higher temperature can hold more water vapour, and the additional water vapour produces a similar blanketing effect to that produced by carbon dioxide. Manabe and Wetherald calculate that an increase of 100% in the content of carbon dioxide would increase the world temperature by 1.3°C if the water content of the atmosphere remained constant, but by 2.4°C if the water vapour increased to maintain the same relative humidity. … The increased water vapour would probably lead to the formation of more clouds because evaporation increases much faster than temperature, and substantially more condensed water would be available.  The additional cloud would reflect incoming solar radiation and tend to produce a lowering of temperature – a negative feedback arising from water vapor.  Other calculations show that world temperature is likely to be remarkably sensitive to the average global cloudiness. A change of only 1% in the average cloudiness would produce a change of temperature of almost 1°


Even global mean temperatures have varied by 0.6°C from a minimum around 1880 to the last maximum around 1940. Against this background a change of  0.6°C by the end of the century [2000] will be not be easy to distinguish from natural fluctuations and certainly is not a cause for alarm. Even a doubling of the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which would probably require the burning of a large part of the known fuel reserves, would appear to result in a rise of temperature little above that experienced in the climatic optimum which followed the last ice ag

e.C.s.72—-r.r.63—–.]t. the last ice age.

206. Dyson, 1977

The magnitude of this negative feed-back effect of atmospheric CO2 upon itself depends on many ecological interactions which have yet to be disentangled. The effect could be negligibly small, or it could be as large as 3 x 109 tons of carbon per yr. In summary, there is insufficient evidence to decide whether the carbon content of the biosphere has decreased, increased or remained stationary in response to the manifold human activities of recent decades. There exists a huge literature attempting to assess or to prognosticate the effects of the increasing atmospheric CO2 on the climate of the earth. Such attempts are useful and necessary, hut they run into formidable technical difficulties. Even the mean global temperature rise caused by a given quantity of CO2 is subject to great uncertainty: and the effects of CO2 on local and time-variable phenomena (which may be crucially important to agriculture and other human activities) are more uncertain still. It is possible that the rise in CO2 will be on balance beneficial to mankind, especially in reducing climatic extremes in very cold and very dry regions.

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207. Newell and Dopplick, 1979

Estimates of the atmospheric temperature changes due to a doubling of CO2 concentration have be with a standard radiative flux model. They yield temperature changes of >0.25 K. It appears that the much larger changes predicted by other models arise from additional water vapor evaporated into the atmosphere and not from the CO2 itself. … It is important to stress…that CO2 is not the main constituent involved in infrared transfer. Water vapor plays the major role and ozone is also of importance. With the infrared region divided into 22 spectral intervals, the infrared and solar fluxes have been computed at levels from the surface up to 5 mb using a procedure originally developed by Rodgers (1967) and modified by Dopplick (1972). The procedure has previously been applied to the computation of heating rates for increased CO2 concentrations (Newell and Dopplick, 1970; Newell et al., 1972). Table 1 gives the results of computations using standard climatological data for January. Twenty of the spectral intervals are dominated by water vapor and the other two contain CO2 (~15 µm) and O(~9.6 µm), although overlap with water vapor is also included. Calculations were performed for CO2 concentrations of 330 and 600 ppmv, taking care to include the changed CO2 concentrations also in the near-infrared solar absorption (cf. Newell et al., 1972). Both sets of computations were also repeated with cloud absent.   The infrared flux dominated by CO2, as is well known, is only about 10% of that controlled by water vapor. The decrease in infrared flux from the surface to the atmosphere due to the increase in CO2 ranges from 1.0 – 1.6 W m-2. The increased CO2 yields additional absorption of solar infrared radiation and therefore a decrease of solar energy available at the surface which ranges up to ~0.3 W m-2. The net change at the surface is an increase of 0.8 – 1.5 W m-2 with the smallest values at low latitudes. … The fact that water vapor dominates CO2 in the radiation budget has been known and discussed for many years (see, e.g., Kondratiev and Niilisk, 1960; Möller, 1963; Zdunkowski et al., 1975) but it seems important to reemphasize when so much attention is being paid to CO2.

The conclusion is that at low latitudes the influence of doubling CO2 on surface temperatures is less than 0.25 K

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208. Singer, 1975

http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-94-010-1729-9_3#page-1

We describe here the uses of various forms of energy, historical and future trends, and especially the various environmental effects. Chief among these are the increase in global carbon dioxide and the generation of waste heat. Their effects are judged to be noticeable but not serious at this time.

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209. Barrett, 1978

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/2008Q2/591A/Articles/barrett_IEEE_04071876.pdf

In particular, detection of an anthropogenic influence through statistical analysis alone requires a long run of data of good quality and careful attention to measures of significance. It is most important to avoid the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy that a trend of a few years’ duration or less, following some change in human activities, can be attributed to that change even when no sound physical causal relationship is evident. As an example of this error, the hemispherically cold winter of 1962-1963 was attributed by some to the resumption of nuclear weapons testing the year before; these people ignored the fact that the winter of 1941-1942 was approximately as cold. “Cycle-hunting” without a good physical hypothesis can also be misleading; the supposed periodicity may lie in a broad, flat maximum of the spectrum and thus be statistically insignificant. While one must presume that natural climatic fluctuations result from the operations of the laws of physics and chemistry, it is practically impossible to isolate simple cause-and-effect relationships in the internal workings of the earth-atmosphere-ocean system. This is because all the processes are interconnected by multiple nonlinear positive and negative feedbacks.

The CO2 increment since 1958 has been about 12 ppmv; the climatic effect of man-generated CO2 should therefore be a warming of about 0.07°C. Since the observed trend after 1940 has been a net cooling (see Fig. 1), it is clear that the effect of CO2 is buried in the noise level of other unexplained fluctuations. … Since the man-made contribution to the atmospheric aerosol with a long residence time is undetectable against the fluctuations in volcanic-dust loading, and since the thermal perturbations from even the largest eruptions are of the same order as other unexplained fluctuations, it can be concluded that man-generated aerosols are not exerting a measureable influence on global climate at present.

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210. Watt, 1971

http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/login.jsp?tp=&arnumber=5217849&url=http%3A%2F%2Fieeexplore.ieee.org%2Fxpls%2Fabs_all.jsp%3Farnumber%3D5217849

Atmospheric carbon dioxide, which amounts to 320 parts per million (ppm) by volume, rather than being a pollutant, is essentially a thread of life woven through the globe on which we live. In the past century alone, the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by 40 ppm, with levels increasing at a current rate of about 0.75 × 1010 tonnes per year. Fortunately, man can tolerate CO2 levels many times present concentrations, and plant life actually grows better at increased CO2 levels. What does cause concern is the effect that atmospheric CO2 has on the earth’s climate. It appears that the 40-ppm increase over the last century may have contributed to a global temperature increase of the order of 0.2 K. Since 1940, however, the global atmospheric temperature has been decreasing – an indication that other factors (such as atmospheric dust) are of much greater importance in determining the overall heat balance of the world.

213. Braslau and Dave, 1973

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0450%281973%29012%3C0601%3AEOAOTT%3E2.0.CO%3B2

In no way can the measured increase in CO2 account for the decrease in annual mean temperature of the surface observed since 1940 (Mitchell, 1961). … [W]e may conclude that evidence trying to support a continuous global build-up of atmospheric aerosol content due to increased human activities is, to a large extent, inconclusive (Mitchell, 1971). … Mitchell (1971) gives an approximate treatment for determining the effect of small changes in aerosol characteristics from an average reference atmosphere on the global climate. He concludes that the presence of stratospheric aerosols would lead to a cooling at the earth’s surface. … His analysis does not support the suggestion by other investigators that the apparent worldwide cooling of climate in recent decades is attributable to largescale increases of atmospheric aerosols by human activities.

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214. van Loon and Rogers, 1978

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0493%281978%29106%3C0296%3ATSIWTB%3E2.0.CO%3B2

From the 1880’s till the 1930’s Oslo temperature was more often above the average than below, particularly during the second half of the period which created an upward trend over more than 50 years. During these years the type Greenland Below (that is, Europe above the mean) was the most frequent one most of the time, and to this was added a large increase of Both Above in the last two decades. Since the 1940’s the temperature at Oslo was more often below than above the long-term average, and during these three decades Greenland Above was the dominant type. It is thus plain that the long-term trends in these regions in winter are closely connected with changes in the frequency of circulation types. It is therefore unlikely that changes in atmospheric constituents [CO2] and aerosol content or in insolation directly caused the temperature trends [italics theirs], through regional trapping of longwave radiation or reflection of insolation. This conclusion is supported by the associate between temperature and pressure trends found among others by Lysgaard (1949), Petterssen (1949) and van Loon and Williams (1976).

Rising CO2 Leads to Cooling (7)

215. Bryson and Dittberner, 1976

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0469(1976)033%3C2094:ANEMOH%3E2.0.CO%3B2

A simple mean hemispheric temperature model has been constructed in the form of a differential equation which is a function of three independent variables: carbon dioxide content of the air, volcanic ejecta and anthropogenic particulate pollution. This model appears to simulate the behavior of Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures as well as they are known and gives a different pattern of behavior for the Southern Hemisphere. By more completely accounting for those anthropogenic processes which produce both lower tropospheric aerosols and carbon dioxide, such as fossil fuel burning and agricultural burning, we calculate an expected slight decrease in surface temperature with an increase in CO2 content. Though an invariant “solar constant” was assumed, an unmistakable 20–25 year periodicity was found in the difference between the calculated and observed direct solar flux reaching the earth’s surface, suggesting a definite but small periodic variation in the solar constant.


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216. Idso, 1983

https://dl.sciencesocieties.org/publications/jeq/abstracts/12/2/JEQ0120020159

Analyses of data from a number of sources indicate that (i) there was a gradual increase in global atmospheric CO2 concentration from about 1860 to 1945, (ii) there has been a much more rapid rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration from 1945 to the present, (iii) the most recent trend of global surface air temperature during this period of rapid COincrease has been downwards, which is in contradiction to the predictions of the most sophisticated general circulational models of the atmosphere in use today, (iv) this downward trend in surface air temperature has been most pronounced in northern latitudes, which is also in contrast to the model predictions, and (v) the downward temperature trend has been greater in summer than in winter, which is again in contradiction to the models. It is thus concluded that the theoretical numerical models of the atmosphere are grossly in error in their predictions of future CO2 effects on world climate, as is also suggested by several recent empirical studies.

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217. Choudhury and Kukla, 1979

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v280/n5724/abs/280668a0.html

Impact of CO2 on cooling of snow and water surfaces

The levels of CO2 in the atmosphere are being increased by the burning of fossil fuels and reduction of biomass. It has been calculated that the increase in CO2 levels should lead to global warming because of increased absorption by the atmosphere of terrestrial longwave radiation in the far IR (>5 μm). From model computations, COis expected to produce the largest climatic effect in high latitudes by reducing the size of ice and snow fields. We present here computations of spectral radiative transfer and scattering within a snow pack and water. The results suggest that CO2 significantly reduces the shortwave energy absorbed by the surface of snow and water. The energy deficit, when not compensated by downward atmospheric radiation, may delay the recrystallisation of snow and dissipation of pack-ice and result in a cooling rather than a warming effect.

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218. Dopplick, 1972

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0469%281972%29029%3C1278%3ARHOTGA%3E2.0.CO%3B2

Computations of radiative heating for the global atmosphere

It is readily seen that water vapor acts to cool the atmosphere everywhere due to an increase of thermal flux with height. Maximum cooling occurs in the troposphere in low latitudes for both seasons associated with the large vertical gradients of water vapor and temperature. Relative minima of cooling are also found in the troposphere because of the influence of clouds with increased cooling above a cloud and decreased cooling below. … Figures 11 and 12 give the global thermal cooling by the 15 µm band of CO2 for December-February and June- August.  Like ozone, overlap with water vapor has been taken into account and tropospheric cooling is predominantly due to water vapor although CO2 cooling is important near the surface.

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219. Idso, 1984

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3370040405/abstract

An analysis of northern, low and southern latitude temperature trends of the past century, along with available atmospheric CO2 concentration and industrial carbon production data, suggests that the true climatic effect of increasing the CO2 content of the atmosphere may be to cool the Earth and not warm it, contrary to most past analyses of this phenomenon. A physical mechanism is thus proposed to explain how CO2 may act as an inverse greenhouse gas in Earth’s atmosphere. However, a negative feedback mechanism related to a lowering of the planet’s mean surface albedo, due to the migration of more mesic-adapted vegetation onto arid and semi-arid lands as a result of the increased water use efficiency which most plants experience under high levels of atmospheric CO2, acts to counter this inverse greenhouse effect. Quantitative estimates of the magnitudes of both phenomena are made, and it is shown that they are probably compensatory. This finding suggests that we will not suffer any great climatic catastrophe but will instead reap great agricultural benefits from the rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 which we are currently experiencing and which is projected to continue for perhaps another century or two into the future.

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220. Ellsaesser, 1984

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0004698184901185

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/222622330_The_climatic_effect_of_CO2_A_different_view

If additional greenhouse gases are added to the atmosphere, it is logical to expect that the greenhouse blanket will thicken; i.e., the average altitude from which the atmosphere emits energy to space will rise above its present level of 6 km. But, since the absorbed solar energy which has to be rejected remains essentially unchanged, the radiating temperature also must remain the same.  That is, the average atmospheric temperature at the new higher level of the top of the greenhouse blanket must warm to the temperature existing now at the present top of the greenhouse blanket.  And if the lapse rate remains the same, then the temperature of the Earth’s surface will also warm. This is a somewhat simplistic but physically valid picture of the mechanism by which increases in the greenhouse gas content of the atmosphere will lead to climatic warming. Unfortunately, this simple picture of how the greenhouse effect operates is of little help in quantifying the amount of warming to be expected.  To see why this is so, examine Fig. 3 [p. 7].  This shows a terrestrial IR spectrum taken by Nimbus IV near Guam on 27 April 1970 on a background of temperature-labeled black body curves and with the wave length range of the principal atmospheric IR absorbers (emitters) indicated.  It is obvious that water, including the dimer, (H2O)2 – believed to be responsible for the continuum absorption (and emission) of water vapor, is the principal emitter, without even considering the effect of clouds, which are also composed of water.  And since this spectrum is taken at latitude 15.1°N, it appears quite credible that the global average temperature of this emitter is 255 K. On the other hand, the IR flux from the CO2 band centered near 15-microns, is both a small fraction of the total and is coming from an emitter with a temperature near 220 K (-50 to -55°C). Returning to Fig. 2, this temperature range is found in the altitude range 12 to 20 km.  If the top of this CO2 greenhouse blanket were to be raised by the addition of CO2 and maintained at constant temperature, this would have little or no effect on the temperature at the surface and, if anything, might cause the surface to cool (i.e., if this radiating layer were pushed above 20 km without changing its temperature).

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304. Flohn, 1983

http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-94-009-7236-0_5#page-2

Little Ice Age (1570-1860)

During this period (Lamb 1977, 1982, Pfister 1983) several old episodes lasting not more than a few decades led to a hemispheric advance of mountain glaciers to a level identical with the highest ever reached during the last 9000 yers, i.e. during the Holocene (Gampber et al. (1982)). During its coldest episodes (e.g. 1683-1700, 1812-1850) individual seasons, years or clusters of years occurred which would now provoke journalists to announce the immediate onset of an ice-age. However, other seasons and years were warmer than the hottest years of the last decades [1960s -1970s] – all kinds of weather extremes were more intense and more frequent than now. Longer warm periods (e.g. 1902-30) interrupted this cold period, which also had its forerunners – notably between 1310 and 1340, as well as 1428-65. The extension of Arctic drift-ice [sea ice probably has varied about 2 x 10km2 between a minimum during the Viking colonisation of Greenland, when the East Greenland Current was ice-free (10th-13th century), and its maximum around 1695. … The most striking event of the 1690’s was the advance of the polar water masses with seasonal ice blocking Iceland and reaching the Faeroes and perhaps even western Norway, with sea surface temperatures (SST) 3-5°C lower than now at the entrance of the North Sea (Lamb 1979). This caused prolonged winters and a strong cooling of spring and early summer in northern and3 central Europe (Fig. 1).

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Coming Soon: Part 4


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